Earthquake in the AI Realm: Has the 2025 Tech Party Come to an End ?

By: Moty Levanon

Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025

Executive Summary: If you had asked investors at the beginning of the year where their capital should be, the answer was unanimous: Artificial Intelligence. However, as we stare at the screens in late November 2025, that rosy picture is beginning to fracture.

Earthquake in the AI Realm: Has the 2025 Tech Party Come to an End ?

Four weekly charts of the sector's leading ETFs (SMH, IGV, AIQ, XLU) reveal a concerning pattern of a "synchronized retreat." This is no longer isolated profit-taking; it is a broad braking maneuver cutting across the entire value chain—from the smallest microchip to the power station supplying it with electricity.

Four weekly charts of the sector's leading ETFs 

In this analysis, we dive deep into the data to understand: Is this a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity, or is the bubble beginning to deflate ?

The Fundamentals: The Hard Transition from Promise to Proof

Before examining the charts, one must understand the shift in the narrative. Until mid-2025, the market rewarded any company purchasing chips. Now, the market demands to see profits.

We are currently transitioning from Phase 1 (Infrastructure and Model Training) to Phase 2 (Implementation and Inference). The problem ? The implementation phase is facing delays.

• The Energy Bottleneck: Data centers are consuming power at a rate the US electrical grid is struggling to supply.

• The Software Crisis: SaaS companies are finding it difficult to justify massive AI expenditures against current revenues from end clients.

These doubts are seeping directly into the technical charts.

Technical Analysis: Four Flashing Warning Lights

Weekly Timeframe Analysis of the "AI Growth Engines"

Viewing the "AI Family" through four central ETFs reveals an almost identical pattern of a "Bull Trap" followed by a drop to support levels. Here is what the charts are telling us:

1. The Weak Link: Software (IGV) Crashed First The chart for IGV (Tech-Software) is the most concerning. The ETF didn't just fall from its peak; it broke downward through the critical support level of $103.98.

• Implication: The thesis that "capital will rotate from hardware to software" is currently failing. Investors are voting with their feet and fleeing software companies, pulling the rug out from under the entire sector.

2. The Engine Stalls: Semiconductors (SMH) on the Brink The SMH semiconductor ETF, which led the rally, has lost altitude sharply, dropping from $400 to $339. It is now sitting exactly—precisely—on the last line of defense ($339.44).

• Scenario: If SMH closes the week below this line, it constitutes a technical breakdown signaling the end of the medium-term trend. There is no room for error here.

3. The Shelter That Failed: Utilities (XLU) The Infrastructure and Utilities sector, considered "defensive" and a secondary beneficiary of the AI boom, is experiencing one of the most violent drops on the chart. The breakout at the $88 peak turned out to be a trap, with prices crashing back down in a powerful red candle.

• Insight: When investors sell even the boring utility stocks, it is a sign they want liquidity ("Cash is King").

4. The Broad Index (AIQ): Holding Pattern The general AI ETF is in a similar position to the chips—sitting on support at $48.79. It is waiting for a verdict: Will it follow Software (down), or manage to hold the line?

Strategy: How to Act Now?

We are at a "Make or Break" moment. The weekly charts show strong negative momentum (large red candles with no buying "wicks").

• Do Not Catch Falling Knives: Although prices have hit support on SMH and AIQ, the risk is too high. The support breakdown in IGV is a stop sign.

• Signal for Entry (Long): Only if next week brings stabilization and a green "reversal candle" that closes clearly above support levels, can a cautious entry be considered.

• Signal to Escape (Short/Cash): A weekly close of SMH below $339 is the final signal to exit the sector. In such a scenario, the path down to $300 is very short.

Bottom Line

November 2025 is teaching us a lesson in humility. AI is here to stay, but stock prices cannot rise forever based on promises alone. Right now, the burden of proof has shifted from the engineers to the CFOs, and the charts signal that the market's patience has run out. Keep your eyes on $339 in SMH.

⚠️ Disclaimer & Legal Disclosure

Please read carefully before taking any action: The information, analysis, and charts presented in this article are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. The content does not constitute, and should not be seen as, investment advice, a recommendation to act, tax advice, or a substitute for independent financial judgment. Risk Warning: Investing in the technology sector, AI, and the capital markets in general involves high risk and may lead to significant capital loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The author is not a licensed investment advisor and bears no responsibility for any damage or loss caused as a result of relying on this information. Any action taken is the sole responsibility of the reader. It is recommended to consult with a licensed investment advisor before making decisions.